Future risk of bowel cancer after urgent suspected cancer referral

Lead researchers: Professor Suzanne Scott and Dr Yin Zhou 

Location: Queen Mary University of London 

Grant award: £161,122 

Professor Scott and Dr Zhou are analysing data on people who develop bowel cancer in the years after tests for a suspected cancer come back clear.

The challenge 

An urgent suspected cancer referral (USCR), previously known as a “two week wait referral,” is when someone has symptoms that could be due to cancer, and they’re sent for specialist tests to investigate.

More than 9 in 10 people referred this way don’t have cancer, although some are found to have other health problems. 

However, Professor Scott’s team have recently found that some of this group of patients, who had an USCR but not a cancer diagnosis, then have a small but higher-than-average risk of cancer in the next five years. The type of cancer diagnosed does not necessarily match the type that was suspected in the original referral.

In their study, they found that bowel cancer was one of the most common cancers diagnosed in the five years after an USCR — and that nearly half of these cases were advanced, when the disease is harder to treat.

The science behind the project 

The researchers will use anonymised NHS data from GP surgeries, hospitals and the cancer registry in England, to look at people who were referred with suspected cancer but didn’t have cancer at the time. 

They’ll be seeing how many people went on to develop bowel cancer, and which groups are at the highest risk. This will include studying different characteristics, such as:

• Patient factors, like sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic status 

• Health-related behaviours, like smoking and alcohol intake 

• Medical factors, like symptoms and other medical conditions 

They want to see if the risk of bowel cancer is higher in the years after an USCR, compared to people with the same characteristics but who didn’t have an USCR.

What difference will this project make? 

People who have previously been given the “all clear” may delay seeking help for future symptoms, because they were reassured by their results, or don’t want to bother their doctor. 

The results of this data analysis will show who is at most risk of developing bowel cancer and so would benefit from targeted support after their USCR. This could be providing information about the key symptoms and what to do about them, or encouraging taking part in bowel screening. 

These potential targeted interventions can help reduce inequalities in bowel cancer diagnosis, and get more people diagnosed at the early stages, when bowel cancer is more treatable.

• For more information see our announcement of the grant
• Read more about diagnosising bowel cancer
• Donate to help make our research possible

“Bowel cancer is one of the most common cancers found in the 5 years after urgent suspected cancer referral, with many diagnosed at an advanced stage. The funding from Bowel Cancer UK will enable us to better understand who is at risk of future bowel cancer after urgent suspected cancer referral. This will help target early diagnosis interventions to those who are most likely to have bowel cancer. This Bowel Cancer UK funded research has the potential to make important, rapid and significant changes after urgent suspected cancer referral to prevent or diagnose bowel cancers early.” - Professor Suzanne Scott